Its been one calendar month, and almost one complete actual month into my blogging career, and I still haven't written about what is probably my favorite sport or about what is probably my favorite team ... hockey and the Toronto Maple Leafs. So with January almost over (its after midnight, but I measure days by sleeps not meaningless places on the clock), I figured its time for lucky post #13 and some Leafs talk.
Many who have followed the Leafs this season see fit to place a large majority of the blame on one Mr. Andrew Raycroft. Such is the life of a goalie in Toronto, made into a god when things are going well and crucified when things go badly. But is that really fair?
By the numbers this season Raycroft doesn't look good. He has a GAA of 2.94 and a save percentage of .898, ranking him 27th and 31st in the league. Numbers like that sure don't seem like they deserve defending, but here I am trying to do just that.
What the numbers don't tell you is that in 8 of 42 games this year Raycroft has had a GAA at 6+. Sometimes this Leaf team just doesn't come to play, sometimes offensive juggernauts like Ottawa and Buffalo run up the score, and a GAA average that would be about 2.57 goes to 2.94. I know all the numbers count, and other goalies have games like this affecting their numbers too, but I also know that whether the Leafs lose 8-2 or 3-2 they go down the same way in the standings. And I know that Raycroft is now 23-16-4 for the Leafs this year, while his backups are a combined 2-5-2. Extrapolate Raycrofts record (and isn't that what really counts) over 82 games and you get 44-30-8, 92 points and a probable playoff spot. Extrapolate the backups and you get 18-46-18, 54 points and a decision on who to take first overall in the draft this summer.
Leafs fans feel the urge to attack Raycroft because of what we gave up, 1st Round prospect Tukka Rask. Rask looked really good at a couple World Juniors (although pretty bad at this years), and people had him annointed as the next big thing. But the key word to be used when describing Rask (and also Justin Pogge, the Leafs other goaltending prospect) is potential. Craig Hillier, Francis Laviree, Jean-Francois Damphous, Jean-Marc Pelletier, Evan Lindsay, Patrick Dovigi, Patrick DesRochers, Matheiu Chouinard, Jomar Cruz ... recognize any of those names? They're a list of goalies drafted in the 1st 2 rounds between 1996-1998, and none of them ever became anything in the NHL. Goaltending prospects are tricky to judge at best, and even when the goalie is good it takes years before you see the results at the NHL level. It is highly unlikely that you will see Tukka Rask contribute anything in the NHL for 2-3 seasons, if in fact he ever does, but somehow that potential helped turn fans against Raycroft.
I'm not trying to say that Andrew Raycroft has been great this year. Even taking out those bad games you are still left with a GAA that is average-slightly above average. I write this to say he's not as bad as some people think, and that given the chance he might help lead this team to the playoffs. He's still a relatively young for a goalie (26) and who knows what he'll turn into ... if the weight of the pressure from being a Leafs goalie doesn't ruin whatever that is.
UPDATE: Raycroft has since dropped his GAA to 2.87 and raised his Save Percentage to .900, carrying the Leafs to a 5th straight win tonight.
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